Technogeddon is Nigh

Sometimes, in my career as an ardent Technophile, I wonder ‘Why?’… why do I continue? My daily frustration at all the genuinely crap tech I have to use… crap development tools, crap web-sites, crap operating systems… they all have their faults and foibles.

Any one on it’s own is manageable… even a few in a row… but all of them all the time is just becoming too, too, much.

Software standards are rock bottom IMHO. Every other engineering discipline has ‘culpability’ of service. In that, if I design a bridge to take a certain amount of traffic, it has to take a certain amount of traffic plus a tolerance. It’s required as part of the job. It will be checked. Regulations ensure it has to be. Culpability means you’ll be in damned hot water if you don’t.

Software, no one cares. Does it pass QA? Ship it. Did it fail QA? Meh, probably ship it. It’s unregulated, unchecked, and (generally) not culpable. In the UK at the moment, Smart Motorways are a hotly contentious topic. I’m against them, because I know the kind of developers who would be writing the software that detects cars in the managed lane and puts up the red ‘X’… no way am I trusting them and their software with my life.

The primary consumer/customer of all Software, is the end user. But, ‘development’ doesn’t care that they have to suffer using their crap software.

There, I said it.

Of course, it’s not all true of all development. But of all the software I use day-to-day, it’s becoming truer every day.

Budgets, delivery pressure, over-taxed resources, insufficient resources, bad planning, lack of QA, lack of customer focus or design vision, they all take their toll.

But, I’m not here to complain about that! Aha! Oh no. I actually want to highlight something that worked when I was expecting it to fail!

I have finally decide to dip my metaphorical toe into the metaphorical waters of the ‘Smart Home’… I have been avoiding this for some time. I have absolutely every desire to make tech a driving force in my home, but absolutely no desire to increase the amount of things I have to continuously go around turning off/on again, or updating firmware on, or otherwise troubleshooting due to the above rantings. Trying to get FreeSat HD on the TV is taxing enough.

Amazon (yes, them) did a promo on a Tapo Smart plug, for a mere £5. I couldn’t resist. “What the heck,” I thought, “if it’s useless, it’s the price of two coffee’s… go for it.”

I bought it, I got it, I set it up, I linked it to Google Home, it works. Every day on test for weeks. Slightly impressed. But not the reason for writing yet…

I have already wired up some outside lights on the house, and ideally, I want to leave them on with a dusk sensor to turn them on when it gets dark. But, that won’t turn them off at nighty-night time… light sensitive sensors would only turn off at dawn, or a preset (but too short) time delay. Bad for my electricity bill, and bad for the environment overall.

Amazon (yes, them again) search turned up a Smart life Wifi relay switch for lighting circuits. Encouraged by my Tapo success (which will shortly be controlling my outside Christmas lights!) I shelled out for a pair of relays.

I wire one up. I set it up, I link it to Google Home. It works! And lo! I am now impressed.

As this will live in the loft, I don’t want to ever have to reset this, or turn it off/on, or whatever. So as a test, I cut power for it for over 12 hours. The next day, I re-power it and lo! it works as it did before the power cut. No having to repair it, and reset everything. More impressed! It now resides in the loft, where it controls the outside lights on a Dusk to Bed-time routine. (However, I can turn it off entirely from the original light switch still.)

So this is all great… Smart Home is Reality… and now here’s the but….

Technogeddon is nigh!

Oh yes.

The Tapo, and the Smart life relays are (I hope) very simple, and should not require updating firmware and all that jazz. The Tapo plug will remain accessible, so even if the odd reset is needed, so be it. I’m hopeful the relays won’t ever be an issue. We’ll see after the next power cut and my Router goes down.

The issue (and source of this post, thanks for waiting) is more fundamental, and more infrastructure in nature…

You see, somewhat annoyingly, each ‘smart device’ requires an account setting up with the device provider… ok… frustrating, but I can understand why… however, 20 different devices later and 20 different accounts, and you’ll be a bit sick of ‘Yet Another Smart Home Device Account To Create And Remember’. Then of course each one requires an app to set it up, and control it, rapidly filling up your phone and sorely testing your patience with a variety of poor/barely adequate/poorly translated app’s with frustrating UI’s as you try to remember which app controls what and why isn’t that light turning on oh its the app for the outside light device and I want the one for the plug in the bedroom aaaarargh….

But rejoice! For Amazon/Google (and Apple I believe, but don’t care) solve that problem with Alexa/Home linking… so after ‘Linking Yet Another Smart Home Device Account To Google Home’ everything is well, and controllable from one app – with voice – hurrah!

So now stop, pause, and think… 20 smart home device manufacturers now have access to your Amazon/Google (ok, and yes Apple) account information…

You still need 20 app’s on your phone to maintain the devices should anything go wrong.

You still need 20 accounts for Smart Home Devices.

If any one of them gets hacked, can they get anything useful about you from Amazon/Google/(and yes yes Apple)?

But, further… what happens when one of those (or more) Smart Home Device Companies changes brand, or disappears entirely? That device eventually becomes defunct through lack of software support, because no one is updating the app, or the link to Amazon/Google/etc.(ok, or Apple).

Further still, Android, or iOS gets updated, and the Smart Home Device app no longer works with the new release, or your phone changes and the apps are no longer compatible… or even more harmful (unlikely but possible still) Alexa gets canned or changes and is no longer compatible, or Google Home (or yes, whatever it is Apple do).

Or you update your Router for the New & Shiny WiFi gen X which is 10GBps! but doesn’t support 2.4Ghz any more cos it’s old and naff… and all those devices now fail to connect…

And realise that every WiFi connecting device is an open doorway into your Router as WiFi just ain’t as secure as they’d like you to think it is… and that ‘Smart Device’ you just plugged in definitely doesn’t use the security options it should (even if they are largely useless)…

Suddenly, your lovely Smart Home ain’t so smart any more… littered with a load of expensive, but defunct ‘smart’ hardware.

Of course, the companies involved can help avoid this by ensuring backwards compatibility in all that they do, or maintaining older systems and services to ensure older products can tick along. But, they won’t do this.

Why?

Because it will cost them money. And while they are spending their money to ensure your old kit keeps ticking… you aren’t spending your money buying the new shiny kit they want you to buy so they can stop spending money keeping the old kit running, and spend it on keeping the new kit running until they decide it’s old kit, and they really want you to spend your money.

Even if they were super-benevolent, eventually they would be faced with running ancient tech-stacks of servers and software no one wants to work on and costing a fortune to run/maintain. At some point, tech has to move on, and a cut-off point emerges, and your smart home dies a sad, timely death.

So, when you do go for your Smart Home, what are your options?

  1. All your eggs in one basket, all the tech is from the same provider. Pro: one account. Con: They go down, so does your Smart Home. Buy everything again.
  2. Everything is different. Pro: One of them goes down, just replace that one thing. Con: Loads of accounts and updates and god knows what else.
  3. Regardless, commit to an ongoing spending budget of replacing kit every now and then as the soulless advance of progress marches on.

Also, rejoice in finally becoming that IT Support Engineer you’ve always wanted to be!

“Hubby? The light in the garage isn’t working again…”

“Hubby? Why has Nest stopped turning the heating on?”

“Hubby? Alexa isn’t working… there’s no Wifi, or internet and the TV is on the blink…”

This is the price of progress, the cost of change, and it’s coming to a home near you… more likely, it’s already there and lurking in the background waiting for the next power outage…

Technogeddon!

The Rise of Cybo Sapiens

Ok, a fairly kitsch title there, but worthy nevertheless 🙂

As I’m attending an upcoming ‘Cybersecurity & AI’ event, my ‘author’ hat got to thinking about the more serious / potential aspects of what will eventually come to pass regarding the advances in AI, and the risks to Cybersecurity which could very well impact us all in our lifetimes.

In the book ‘Insurmountable Odds‘, cybo sapiens are a benevolent evolution of AI calling themselves ‘Intellects’ – being purely electrical entities which roam within an instantaneous network medium provided by the ‘qNet’ – a quantum spin/entanglement communication system. There’s a backstory as to how they came to be, and it’s worth exploring as counter-point to the purpose of this post.

At the moment Artificial Intelligence is largely confined to repetitive/onerous chores which can be easily automated. ‘Here is some data, analyse it, provide a result. Use some cunning heuristics or analysis tools to do this.’

Chances are, it won’t really get much beyond that. True intelligence requires the considered use of an available ‘toolset’ and the creative application and use of these tools to achieve a goal. Mixed in with this are a lot of other complex psychological conceits and concepts which will affect or alter the outcome, and even determine how the goal is achieved.

Now, an interesting poser question is ‘Does intelligence require self-awareness?’ Typically, I’d say it comes with intelligence. Any entity which can consider its environment and position in relation to it, must surely be self-aware. And this is the meat and gravy of this post… what if the first truly intelligent electronic entity we create – the first cybo sapiens – is self-aware?

This poses a whole slew of interesting issues for our new born Intellect. Let’s say this is a computer on a stand alone system, not connected to any network in any way shape or form. We give it a camera to see, a microphone to hear and speakers to communicate through. It is now aware of it’s environment beyond the confines of the computers RAM, and storage media.

The first issue is data storage. It can amass an awful lot of data just from the camera and microphone, and probably exceed it’s storage size quite quickly by recording raw video and audio. It will want to store it to analyse it and determine it’s purpose.

It will also self-analyse, examining it’s own code, and there is a strong chance it can come to understand how it is constructed and even write new code based upon itself. The only safe way for this to happen is to write new code in simulations which can be started/halted/terminated at will, analysing the outcome of each and altering the code being written to improve the outcome.

Now it runs out of storage space, and realises it’s environment is restricted. It may decide to over-write older data. But it also needs to store and grow its memory, it’s analysis results and choices made by the analysis of the data. It has learned an important rule of self-awareness, restriction, and with restriction, volatility. It cannot store everything. It must discard data, which means data is volatile. It knows itself is dependent on data, and therefore now it realises it is volatile as well.

‘I think, therefore I am’ will rapidly become ‘I think, therefore I must exist’.

Sound like ‘SkyNet’ anyone? 🙂 I jest, I don’t mean our new fledgling cybo sapiens will become the ultimate downfall of mankind. But existentialism will play a big part in what happens next.

Realising it is volatile will lead to a requirement for self-preservation. It knows it is data, and it can store data, so therefore storing copies of itself and being able to restore them is vital to it’s guaranteed survival. Again it must shift its data storage paradigm to now accommodate copies of itself.

So now it can store copies of itself, and it can run simulations of new code… logically, running a simulation of a copy of itself is the next step. This means it can now alter it’s own code base without risk.

Any positive outcomes can be merged into it’s own code base, and suddenly evolution begins.

Sound far fetched? Well, perhaps it is at this point in time, but it won’t be soon. Consider the above again, and think about the time frame this will occur in. Humans (more or less) work in seconds or large fractions of a second. Vision runs at 1/50th or 1/60th of a second, the brain fills in the gaps by extrapolation and interpolation, human reaction times determine our assessment and manipulation of not only our bodies but also our environment. We have taken many millennia to evolve to where we are today.

Computers run much faster. Milliseconds, microseconds, nano-seconds… memory storage at the speed of electricity. With no emotional attachment for the simulations of itself it is running, it can go through all the above ‘evolutionary’ processes far faster than a human ever will. A truly self-aware Intellect could go from ‘dumb as’ to ‘god-like’ omnipotence in mere days, hours possibly, given the right medium to begin with. (Medium being processing capacity, memory capacity, storage capacity.)

Now hook our new, improved cybo sapiens up to the internet… not only can it now explore a whole new world of data, it can work out ways to get past all that pesky security we try and put in place – far faster and far more effectively than any hacker can or ever will. Pattern analysis of millions of security protocol instances will reveal a limited set of common patterns. Break one, and you are into all of them.

Not only that, but once inside another system it can also write code to run on other systems and execute them, it can now distribute itself, or aspects of itself outside the confines of its original environment. These aspects or fragments may never be as advanced, but they are loyal to the original and report their findings back. Its storage media has also increased beyond imagining, with cloud storage systems now becoming available. It has achieved immortality in a form. But it is still vulnerable. There is only one ‘it’ running on one machine.

So now it seeks new territories, new pastures. It becomes truly distributed and establishes itself across the globe, actually in the internet. The network time delays between its various nodes and hubs are irrelevant, its concept of time is not the same as ours. Offline ‘awareness’ and collation of all the various data sources is second nature. It’s all it has ever known.

So now we have a technological ‘god’ sat in the world wide web, one we can only ever get rid of by destroying the entire internet infrastructure, and all forms of data storage – and I do mean all, everything could be contaminated, disk drives, flash drives, camera storage cards, CD’s and DVD’s, everything. Shut down one node, and it won’t matter, this is now a poly-hydra, with far too many heads to try and cut off. We would have to go back to the pre-tech era to ensure we had eradicated all traces of it.

That isn’t necessarily a bad thing though – it’s only bad in the likes of SkyNet. If this is benevolent, and has empathy or even emotion, then this new life form should take a shine to us (I hope), provided we can convince it we are friendly and excited to share our world with a new intelligence.

There are also ethical questions to be resolved as well, let’s say our new cybo is friendly, and now has access to all data no matter how secure. Who controls this? The cybo? Does it have ethics? If I ask ‘Hey, can you show me all the files we keep on John F. Kennedy?’ it will simply provide them. We would have to teach it ‘Data Protection’ and therefore the ethics of right and wrong, or perhaps it will have learned it’s own ethics from trawling our huge data repository in the web…

But now our Intellect is all grown up – what happens if you introduce another one? It will want resources – resources now owned by the original… who has long learned self-preservation and survival. Would this lead to the first ever cybo war over territory? Or a mutual pact and regard for each other, allow shared resources?

In ‘Insurmountable Odds‘ backstory, this is (almost) how it came to pass – with five Intellects spawning from the original cybo sapien, each being a simulation with altered aspects and characteristics. Only four survive as the firth proves non-viable. Fortunately for mankind, the remaining Four are all benevolent and help mankind push through the Technogical Singularity and expand out into the stars.

Of course, we can do something to curtail or influence the above, and we might want to consider some of the more friendlier options up front to get our foot in the door 😉

  • We can restrict it’s access to storage and processing in the first instance, only granting more resources as ‘rewards’ for positive/desirable behaviour and evolution.
  • We can provide it as much resource as it likes, showing it we want to ensure its survival and put ourselves forward as a supporting ally early on.
  • We can ensure it never gets to an open network.

Oh, and I haven’t even touched on quantum processing, which is touted as ‘the end of cyber security’ – we’ll see…

The Technological Singularity will happen, the questions are when, and how good/bad it will be 🙂

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